Structured Products Annual Performance Review 2020

Structured Products Annual Performance Review 2020 A comprehensive review of Structured Product performance Covering all intermediary distributed products that matured in 2019

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UK Structured Products Sector Maturity Analysis Covering all intermediary distributed products that matured in 2019

Welcome to Lowes Financial Management’s Annual Performance Review 2020, a rich and comprehensive overview of the retail structured product maturities of the past year. Each January we analyse our extensive database – which now extends to over 7,000 investments – to provide accurate, objective analysis and let the gures speak for themselves. Whilst markets in 2019 proved tricky to navigate and at the year end the FTSE 100 index, to which two thirds of plans are linked, was at approximately the same level it was at two years earlier, it was yet another successful year for retail structured products. The sector did, however, have some higher risk, share-linked plans mature returning losses, as a result of the underwhelming performance of a select few individual shares to which these plans were linked. Thankfully this represented only four of the 334 maturities that occurred during the year. I am, yet again, delighted that the Lowes selection process for ‘Preferred’ plans proved its worth with the ‘Preferred’ plans that matured (71 of the 334) outperforming their respective sub-sector averages in almost all instances, delivering an average annualised return of 7.22% over an average term of 3.68 years. The average top quartile return of these ‘Preferred’ plans was 9.60% and the lower quartile return was 4.77%. The maturity results particularly showcase the strength of autocallable structured products which represent more than half of all maturities. The most prevalent of all product maturity shapes was capital at risk autocalls linked solely to the FTSE 100 Index. These delivered average annualised returns of 7.41%. In 2019, we were proud to showcase a longer-term review of the sector, looking at both maturity and issuance of products over the ten years following the nancial crisis. We are glad that the review was well received and are grateful to all of the named plan managers in the report who generously sponsored its production by contributing to Macmillan Cancer Support. To obtain a copy of Lowes Structured Product 10-year review please visit: www.Lowes.co.uk/our-thinking/10-year-review With structured product investors having been so well served, there is a lot for providers and distributors to be proud of. Sadly, myths and misunderstanding have meant that many retail investors have not been in a position to enjoy the bene ts and returns the sector has

produced but with a raft of evidence, such as that contained in these sector reviews, we believe the tide is slowly turning. The UK retail sector has now evolved to provide a regular supply of predominantly straightforward, competitive solutions, with easy to understand outcomes, o ering attractive potential returns linked solely to the FTSE 100 Index and as such, warrants proper consideration by all independent investment advisers. All of us here at Lowes hope that you will nd the analysis this review provides thoroughly informative. Here’s to another year of success and looking forward to what the new decade may hold. Ian Lowes Managing Director Lowes Financial Management Limited Published January 2020

Headline Data

All Products

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

Structured Product Maturities 2019 Number of Product Maturities

334 315

71 71

Number that Generated Positive Returns Number that Returned Capital Only

15

0 0

4

Number that Lost Capital

3.81

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Capital at Risk Products

3.68

5.73% 8.95% 1.81% 0.37% 3.01% 5.05% 3.81% 6.74% 9.38%

7.22% 9.60% 4.77% 2.44% 4.38% 5.64% 6.03% 7.80% 9.82%

All Products Upper Quartile Lower Quartile Upper Quartile Lower Quartile Upper Quartile Lower Quartile All Deposit Products

Key Takeaways

• 94.31% of all products maturing in 2019 generated positive returns for investors, with 4.49% returning capital only and 1.20% (four) returning a loss.

• In 2019, all Lowes ‘Preferred’ plans that matured resulted in gains. On average the returns of these maturities were 1.49% per annum greater than the sector as a whole.

• Four share-linked plans lost capital in 2019. The two shares that ultimately determined the loss to investors’ capital were Standard Chartered plc (3 plans) and Marks & Spencer (1 plan).

Continued...

Key Takeaways Continued

• The FTSE 100 Index in isolation was the most prevalent underlying measurement utilised, accounting for 65.87% of all maturities.

• The 243 capital-at-risk products collectively produced an average annualised return of 6.74% over an average term of 3.32 years. The upper quartile returned 9.38% per year, whereas the lower quartile returned 3.81% per year.

• 160 of these were linked solely to the FTSE 100 and these produced an average annualised return of 6.81% over an average term of 3.36 years. The upper quartile returned 8.99% per year, whereas the lower quartile returned 5.03% per year.

• The 49 Lowes ‘Preferred’ capital-at-risk products linked solely to the FTSE 100 produced an average annualised return of 7.65% over an average term of 3.11 years. The upper quartile returned 9.53% per year, whereas the lower quartile returned 6.00% per year.

• The 60 capital ‘protected’ and deposit-based products linked solely to the FTSE 100 collectively produced an average annualised return of 3.81% over an average term of 4.87 years. The upper quartile returned 5.19% per year, whereas the lower quartile returned 2.30% per year.

• The autocall / kick-out products made up 53.29% of all maturing products in 2019 and these ran for an average term of 2.50 years producing an average annualised return of 6.68%.

• The average annualised returns from the Lowes ‘Preferred’ structured deposits was 4.38% and even the bottom quartile returned 2.44% per year on average.

Notes Lowes' database is maintained with details of all Structured Products launched in the UK that are promoted through Independent Financial Advisers and other wealth managers. It does not include private placement trades or, products distributed solely through closed or, restricted channels.

The ‘Stars’ are the relevant top performing plans in each sub-sector.

When referring to quartiles, we mean the average of the best / worst 25% of all respective maturities.

The annualised return is calculated using the total return over the holding period from the Strike Date to the Final Index Date.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Investments of this nature carry risks to your capital.

Commentary

The good, the bad and the ugly By Blair Carmichael

10:10 Maturities in 2019 It’s over four years since the first 10:10 Plan was launched as a co-operation with Lowes and Mariana Capital and there have been 99 options of the plan issued to date, used by hundreds of financial advisers around the UK, ultimately achieving high levels of client satisfaction. Whilst the 10:10 launch introduced the concept of an extended maximum possible term for autocalls, providing greater potential for positive maturity in the event of short to medium termmarket turmoil, the extended maximum term has thus far, thankfully, proven unnecessary, with almost every issue maturing at its first potential opportunity.

The results of all 10:10 Plans which matured in 2019 are as follows:

We have been reflecting on what has been another, overall favourable year for investors in UK retail structured products. Whilst the majority of plans in 2019 performed well, there have been some standout performers, be it for better or worse… We’ll start with the ‘good’. There were 14 structured products which achieved an annualised return for investors of 10%, or greater. The strongest of which was the Meteor FTSE/STOXX Kick Start Plan October 2018, which o ered a front-loaded return in the first year of 15% with 10% per additional year thereafter. Maturity would be triggered by both the FTSE 100 and Eurostoxx 50 Indices closing above their initial index levels on a plan anniversary and this was the case on the first anniversary in October when the plan matured returning the 15% gain. Whilst the majority of the plans producing the highest returns were linked to multiple underlyings, incorporating a ‘worst-of ’ element, some of the strongest performers were solely linked to the performance of the FTSE 100 Index. For example, the best performing FTSE 100 plan was option 3 of the April 2016 issue of the Mariana Capital 10:10 Plan, which o ered a 12.6% gain for each year held, payable on any anniversary from year three onwards, provided that the FTSE closed 10% or more above the initial index level. This plan matured on its first opportunity, giving an annualised return of 11.28% over the three-year holding period. The bad news, however, is that August saw the first loss making maturity in over two years; the previous being in May 2017. This represented the end of a run of 907 retail maturities without loss and the August loss making maturity was followed by three more during the rest of the year. All of these losses were due to a function of the inherent greater risk taken by the plans, being linked to the performance of a basket of shares, rather than a market index. The worst performer of the year was a plan from Meteor; the FTSE 5 Enhanced Quarterly Defensive October 2013. This plan o ered a potential return of 4% for every three-month period it was held, with the potential for early maturity from the first year onwards if the five shares were above their initial index levels. Unfortunately, being a “worst-of” share-linked plan, investors were exposed to the full fall in the price of the worst performing share - Standard Chartered plc, resulting in a loss of 56.3% – an equivalent annualised return of -12.88%. And now the ugly… It’s not too often that retail investors hope for markets to fall, but shortly after investing, this will have been the case for many investors in either of Meteor’s Dual Index Income Deposit plans from January or March of 2013. Plans such as these are often referred to as ‘range-bound’ plans, as annual income payments would have been made provided that the FTSE 100 and the S&P500 indices were within certain ranges – e.g. FTSE 4,900 to 7,200 and S&P 1,200 to 1,680). Unfortunately, because both underlying indices (particularly the S&P500) performed so well shortly after the plan commenced, there were no instances in which both indices were simultaneously within the required range to generate an income on any observation date. This therefore meant that investors in these structured deposits received no income, and e ectively had their money locked away in zero-interest bank accounts for six years. There were 334 retail structured product maturities throughout 2019 and whilst the aforementioned bad, ugly and a few more like them dragged down the performance of the sector as a whole, 315 of the 334 (94.3%) matured positively with capital-at-risk plans returning an average of 6.74% and deposits returning 3.01% per annum.

Maturity date (2019)

Issue

Strike Date

Index

Result

Duration

February 2016 (Option 1) February 2016 (Option 2) February 2016 (Option 3) April 2016 (Option 1) April 2016 (Option 2) April 2016 (Option 3) Dual Index April 2016 (Option 1) Dual Index April 2016 (Option 2) Dual Index April 2016 (Option 3)

12/02/2016 12/02/2016 12/02/2016 15/04/2016 15/04/2016 15/04/2016

FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100

12/02 12/02 12/02 15/04 15/04 15/04

21.00% 3 years

27.00% 34.35% 23.40%

3 years 3 years 3 years

30.00% 3 years 37.80% 3 years

FTSE 100 EURO STOXX 50 FTSE 100 EURO STOXX 50 FTSE 100 EUROSTOXX 50

15/04/2016

15/04

28.05%

3 years

15/04/2016

15/04

36.15%

3 years

15/04/2016

15/04

45.75%

3 years

May 2016 (Option 1) May 2016 (Option 2) May 2016 (Option 3) July 2016 (Option 1) July 2016 (Option 2) July 2016 (Option 3)

27/05/2016 27/05/2016 27/05/2016 15/07/2016 15/07/2016 15/07/2016 02/09/2016 02/09/2016 21/10/2016 21/10/2016 16/12/2016 16/12/2016 22/12/2017

FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100

28/05 28/05 28/05 15/07 15/07 15/07 02/09 02/09 21/10 21/10 16/12 16/12 23/12

22.50% 3 years 29.10% 3 years

37.05%

3 years

21.15% 3 years 27.90% 3 years 35.10% 3 years 21.30% 3 years 28.20% 3 years 21.00% 3 years 27.30% 3 years

September 2016 (Option 1) September 2016 (Option 2) October 2016 (Option 1) October 2016 (Option 2) December 2016 (Option 1) December 2016 (Option 2) December 2017 (Option 2)

21.90%

3 years

29.40% 3 years 16.50% 2 years

Performance of all structured products should, subject to counterparty solvency, be in line with the stated, defined terms given the prevailing market/underlying index performance. Please remember that no two products and investment periods are the same, and as such, past performance is not a guide to the future.

SP—The Stars

Non-FTSE 100 Only Plan

Meteor FTSE/STOXX Kick Start Plan October 2018 Index Link: FTSE 100 Index and EURO STOXX 50 Index Gain: 15% after 1 Year

FTSE 100 Only Kick Out

FTSE 100 Growth Plan

Mariana Capital 10:10 Plan April 2016 (Option 3) Gain: 37.8% after 3 Years Annualised Return: 11.28%

Meteor FTSE Growth March 2013 Gain: 72% after 6 years Annualised Return: 9.46%

SP—THE BLACK HOLE

Meteor FTSE 5 Enhanced Quarterly Defensive October 2013 Loss: 56.30% after 6 years Underlying shares: BP, Rio Tinto, Vodafone Group, BAE Systems and Standard Chartered Annualised Return: -12.88%

Income Plan

Deposit Plan

Hilbert Investment Solutions Conditional Quarterly Autocall Issue 12 Index Link: FTSE 100 Index and EURO STOXX 50 Index Quarterly income of 2.15% for 1 year

Meteor Dual Index Income Deposit April 2013 Index Link:

FTSE 100 Index and S&P 500 Index Annual income of 8% for 6 years

Analysis and Annualised Performance 2019

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

By Product Type

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

80 68 12

Number of Products Returning Capital Only Number of Products which Lost Capital Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns

59 59

0

12 12

243 236

11 11

- - - - - - -

3 4

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

3.32

6.00

5.01

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns

3.35

5.33

6.74% 9.38% 3.81%

3.31% 5.16% 2.07%

3.01% 5.05% 0.37%

Upper Quartile Lower Quartile All Products

7.80% 9.82% 6.03%

4.38% 5.64% 2.44%

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only FTSE 100 Index only Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

53 53

49 49

0

12 12

160 160

7 7 0 0

- - - - - - -

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

3.36

6.00

4.72

3.11

5.33

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

6.81% 8.99% 5.03%

3.76% 5.51% 1.99%

3.81% 5.14% 2.35%

7.65% 9.53% 6.00%

4.38% 5.64% 2.44%

Lower Quartile

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only Non-FTSE 100 Index only Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Structured Deposits

27 15 12

10 10

0

0-

0

83 76

4 4 0 0

- -

- - - - - - -

3 4

0 0

-

- - - - - -

0

- - - - -

3.24

6.00

5.60

4.50

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

6.59% 10.04% 1.69%

2.52% 3.09% 2.23%

1.44% 4.30% 0.00%

8.51% 10.99% 6.40%

Lower Quartile

Analysis and Annualised Performance by Product Shape - Growth Products

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Growth Plans

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

24 24

10 10

40 40

10 10

0

9 9 0 0

Number of Products Returning Capital Only Number of Products which Lost Capital Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns

- - - - - - -

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

5.63

6.00

5.15

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products

6.00

5.11

6.60% 8.51% 4.79%

3.42% 5.16% 2.07%

3.11% 5.06% 1.08%

6.91% 8.14% 5.24%

4.33% 5.77% 1.42%

Upper Quartile Lower Quartile

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only FTSE 100 Index only Growth Plans Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

26 26

6 6 0 0

0

9 9 0 0

20 20

7 7 0 0

- - - - - - -

0 0

0 0

5.55

6.00

5.12

6.00

5.11

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

6.59% 8.67% 4.68%

3.76% 5.51% 1.99%

3.54% 5.17% 1.87%

7.06% 8.14% 5.19%

4.33% 5.77% 1.42%

Lower Quartile

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only Non-FTSE 100 Index only Growth Plans Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Deposits

0

14 14

4 4 0 0

0

4 4 0 0

3 3 0 0

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

0 0

6.00

6.00

6.00

5.22

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

6.68% 7.55% 5.34%

2.61%

2.30% 4.72% 0.58%

6.68% 7.55% 5.34%

- -

Lower Quartile

Analysis and Annualised Performance by Product Shape - Auto-calls / Kick-out Products

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Auto-Calls

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

19 15

Number of Products Returning Capital Only Number of Products which Lost Capital Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns

47 47

0

0

158 152

1 1 0 0

- - - -

- - - -

3 3

4 0

0 0

2.35

6.00

3.63

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products

2.67

7.16% 9.90% 4.00%

2.25%

2.94% 4.12% 0.54%

8.07% 10.13% 6.39%

-

-

- -

- -

Upper Quartile Lower Quartile

- -

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only FTSE 100 Index only Auto-calls Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Deposits

97 97

0

15 15

41 41

0

0

- - -

- - - -

- - - -

0 0

0 0

0 0

-

3.00

2.55

2.15

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

7.41% 9.48% 5.71%

0

3.72% 4.13% 2.97%

7.83% 9.72% 6.33%

-

-

- -

- -

- -

Lower Quartile

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only Non-FTSE 100 Index only Auto-calls Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Deposits

4 0 4 0

6 6 0 0

0

0

61 55

1 1 0 0

- - - -

- - - -

3 3

2.66

6.00

6.00

3.50

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

9.73% 12.11% 8.41%

-

-

6.76% 10.64% 1.13%

2.25%

- -

- -

- -

Lower Quartile

Analysis and Annualised Performance by Product Shape - Income Products

All Plans

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Income Plans

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

21 13

Number of Products Returning Capital Only Number of Products which Lost Capital Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns

2 2 0 0

0

3 3 0 0

61 60

0

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

0 1

8 0

4.92

6.00

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products

6.00

5.99

4.51%

5.69% 7.37% 3.68%

2.90% 5.70% 0.00%

5.81%

- -

Upper Quartile Lower Quartile

- -

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only FTSE 100 Index only Income Plans Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

12 12

2 2 0 0

0

3 3 0 0

43 43

0

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

0 0

0 0

5.05

6.00

5.99

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

6.00

4.51%

5.56% 6.73% 4.49%

4.51% 5.72% 3.70%

5.81%

- -

- -

Lower Quartile

Lowes 'Preferred' Plans

All Plans

Number of Product Maturities Number of Products Producing Positive Returns Number of Products Returning Capital Only Non-FTSE 100 Index only Income Plans Number of Products which Lost Capital

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected'

Deposits

Capital at Risk Capital 'Protected' Deposits

9 1 8 0

0

0

0

18 17

0

- -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

0 1

-

4.61

-

6.00

Average Duration / Term (Years) Average Annualised Returns All Products Upper Quartile

- - -

5.98% 8.02% 2.63%

0.75% 3.37% 0.00%

Lower Quartile

About Lowes Financial Management & Structured Products Lowes, established in 1971 are independent, chartered nancial planners and investment managers with a broad variety of expertise across all aspects of wealth management. As independent nancial advisers, we assess the whole investment space to ensure that our advice is individually tailored to our clients’ nancial goals. In doing so, we consider alternative as well as familiar investments and retirement solutions. Our expertise in the structured product sector is widely acknowledged and respected. We have been evaluating all new entries to the retail market for more than twenty years, during which time we have played a signi cant role in helping to educate the wider adviser community about the sector, whilst helping to shape it for better investor outcomes, by championing good product design and governance and warning against some of the less desirable, historic sector additions. Over the last two decades we have published details of over 7000 product reviews, whilst identifying which of these we ‘Preferred’ and as such, prepared to utilise in client portfolios. In more recent years, we have used our sector knowledge to help bring to the market new product shapes, such as the Mariana 10:10 Plan which in uenced signi cant improvements to other new issues across the sector. We also manage the Lowes UK De ned Strategy Fund, an innovative UCITS fund of structured investment strategies, which draws upon our unrivalled experience and structured investment selection success. The Fund provides an easy way to invest across multiple structured investment strategies, linked predominantly to the FTSE 100 Index, with no more than 10% credit exposure to any one bank. It is available on many major investment platforms. To access further information visit www.UKDSF.com

Lowes Head O ce: Fernwood House

Lowes Financial Management Investment Team

Contact

Telephone: 0191 281 8811

Email: enquiry@Lowes.co.uk

Web: Lowes.co.uk

Ian Lowes FPFS Managing Director

Doug Milward APFS Investment Manager

Paul Milburn Investment Analyst

Colin Mclachlan Lead Technician

Address: Lowes Financial Management Limited Fernwood House Clayton Road Jesmond Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE2 1TL

Blair Carmichael Technician

Josh Mayne Technician

Geri Ryall Technician

This review has been produced entirely by Lowes Financial Management Ltd at the company’s expense. No advertising, or other revenue has been generated. Advertisements within the publication are however for investments that Lowes has helped conceive, develop and distribute and as such, Lowes has a commercial interest in these investments. However, where Lowes is involved in advice on, or the intermediation of these investment to retail clients, it will not receive any revenue other than the intermediation fees payable by the investing client.

Lowes Financial Management is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authori ty

Lowes Financial Management is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authori ty